3 posts tagged “future”
So I've given three BIG presentations this week. One to the entire future media team at the BBC about the future circa 2012. One today for a group of Sr. management consulting strategists - and one virtually to a group of lawyers about environmental film making. I have to say, the the one made me the most nervous was the BBC one, it's always tough to present to 1000 of your peers when they HAVE to be there. I always find audiences who've paid a grand to see you are much more cooperative.
It went well, I'll post the presentation online someplace this weekend if you're interested post here and tell me. I also went to a visionary - leadership conference hosted by Ad Network Tradedoubler. I have to say it was GREAT!
My favourite two speakers were Richard Eyre, who in addition to making lots of witty "Long Tail" references made some great connections between the ethos of Punk Rock and blogging/social networking.. Great stuff.
Then Ray Hammond, who I personally adore, jumped up and explained that he was from the future.. It's a fun schtick and I thought he had a few interesting things to say, particularly I LOVED his simple summary of the principals businesses and entrepreneurs (ok i'm paraphrasing) need to pay attention to in regards to the next 25 years
I The most important principals influencing our future - according to Ray Hammond
1 - world population explosion: 2030 = 8.2 billion, 2050 = 9-12 biillion
2 - climate change: extreme weather wreaks havoc on economy
3 - energy crisis: oil used in plastic and petrochemicals is 8% the remainder is burned for combustion. The 8% is worth, economically speak as much as the 92% !
4 - globalization: ethical/sustainable is a god thing. 2 billion new consumers protect economic opportunity!
5 - extend & prevent: medical technology, dna profiling, nano medicine.
6 - accelerating and exponential technology development . Moores law has shrunk from 18 to 12 months, 2030 computers 1 billion times more powerful..
7 - mobile, embedded, implanted, personalized virtual device, avatar, phone replacement. Your interface with the world.
8 - the bottom billion, who have NO access to the above. Source of future war & terrorism
Heady stuff!!! But thank God I'm back from the future, I need to go to bed - I'm exhausted from all this time travel.
There were a few quite formative books and films, which framed my vision for the future of Technology, Media and Entertainment. (Recruiters and an analysts now with the addition of Internet refer to this sector as TIME) Three books in particular, Bruce Sterling’s Islands in the Net,
At this years CES I saw the beginnings of the world outlined in these books and films, exciting, inspiring and terrifying all at the same time. I think the press and certainly my friends were unanimous in what they considered the show’s biggest innovation – Panasonic’s 150” plasma television. No typo, this is one big television. As I gazed in awe I could only think to myself, man I need a bigger house.
In all seriousness however, there was something far more interesting about screens and the CES show. They are simply everywhere! The diaspora of plasma, LED and soon OLED (more on that later) means every company had a zillion displays of all different sizes, from the Samsung (I’ll blog about that some other time, the most beautiful almost jewellery like digital watch I’ve ever seen which has a Dick Tracy phone built-in which in combination with a handy Bluetooth headset caused me serious lust) watch and keychain photo screens (smallest was an inch square and ¼ inch thick!). Wifi enabled picture frames, every one of the Televisions at the very least has HPNA and many even have browser’s built in. I was struck that the world which my former business partner, Schematic founder and likely the most famous UI designer alive Dale Herigstad helped imagine with Spielberg in Minority Report where screens are everywhere giant, connected and aware of your presence (this last part is still not there yet, but the rest is there) With OLED technology, demo’d all over the show, the organic diodes can be aerosoled and sprayed – paint-like on a wall – coming to a London studio apartment near you in 3-5 years. The wall screen in Neuromancer is on the horizon.
What struck, however, was that while the screens have migrated all over the house and office, and they are getting bigger, smaller and network aware and even connected - that the services and experience frameworks are quite nascent. Microsoft, with it’s windows media center + extender technology seem to be one of the few standards in the space, Sony has a framework demonstrated in the new PS3, but really for a consumer to buy one of these devices, go home and instantly be able to access all of their movies, music, photos, etc. across all of the screens still requires at least an IT guy maybe two. The focus has been on the device capability but not on the digital DNA/framework - across manufacture and platform – to create a consistent simple intuitive experience. They seem to have forgotten the lessons of the past - everyone trying to control and drive the user experience rather than creating a simple intuitive open framework to enable consumers to get what they want, when they want, where & how.
The future is almost here, but we have a lot of worked to go on its user experience.
so I'm off to SF, LA , Vancouver and then NY, before a return to London in a week. So this week I had so many meetings about so many varying opportunities, I started to do a SWOT analysis today just to assess who to email back 1st. Wow.
Seriously though, I had dinner last night with one of my two leading contenders.. Frankly he is 50% of the reason for my being interested in the opportunity, but over dinner and conversation we began to re-frame the opportunity from what was, before dinner, the trailing opportunity, into what is now the leading opportunity.
This crossroads is so strange. One opportunity is 100% strategic, plan, do deals, spar, think, explore and it includes the opportunity to have a MAJOR effect on something which will change the face of the net and media for the next few years, if we didn't screw it up. More importantly it involves working with great people who I really like and I feel like I could really make a difference.
The 2nd opportunity, which until now was way ahead and is now in a dead heat, is the polar opposite in terms of tactical job scope and details, but is just as interesting. It's the chance to go into and build a company, inside another company. Actually two companies, though they don't know that yet. The Existing company is a well run, wonderful company and I feel like i could bring a lot of value and frankly learn a lot from the folks who are there. Again the person I would work for, even though we haven't spent as much time together as #1 is a good person and I like and feel like it'd be a great team.
While I've been with my wife since my 20's, this feels akin to my pre-Tavin dating many women at once stage. I'm quite fickle at this moment. The thing is - I feel like this decision will re-frame the remainder of my life, changing what doors open for me and what doors close. I'm at an age where I have to think about not just this door, but the next three and what I want them to be. It's a hard choice.
The good news: Either opportunity would be amazing for my family and allow me to see them more, though one is stronger in this capacity than the other (of course it's the one that pays less! - aaach) Both involve good people and good companies, no sketchiness. Each has it's negatives, of course, but they are really more challenges to be overcome, within myself and within the organizations. Strangest of all, neither of them is a start-up, which will surprise a lot of people.
I'm having breakfast this a.m. with someone about the big super-secret-world-destroying start-up idea I have. It's the dark horse in the race. Some days it feels like a complete windmill tilt, others I feel like it's a real chance to change the world. What I can't decide is my reticence due to self-preserving prudence, or feel of failure.
Lastly, I agreed, today, to take an advisory role (being defined) with a company to help them raise money.This company recycles electronics goods, computers, laptops, whatever. What's interesting about them is they are a 100% green business without them all of this stuff goes into landfills. They step in, refurbish and re-market 70-80% of the stuff and dismantle and scrap (no landfill 100% reuse) the remainder. It's literally a junk into gold business model. More about this as I help them craft the pitch. - this isn't a gig, just something I'm doing on the side, because, as my friend and I agreed this week, "Its something I can do, its a good thing to do, and it's good that the thing will be done."
Ciao
